Since 2006, national health expenditure (NHE) growth has been slow relative to historic growth rates. Annual spending growth between 2006 and 2017 averaged 5.2 percent for Medicare, 6 percent for Medicaid, and 4.4 percent for private health insurance. The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) project much faster growth in Medicare and Medicaid spending per enrollee from 2017 to 2026 than we have seen in the past decade.
These projections raise concerns about the sustainability of current trends and have been cited in proposals to dramatically restructure both programs. However, Medicare and Medicaid better contain per enrollee health spending growth than private insurance.
The authors conclude that Medicare and Medicaid have successfully moderated growth in spending per enrollee over the last decade and do not require major restructuring to lower national health spending. Overall, Medicare and Medicaid are doing a good job of keeping per capita costs under control, and the continuation of recent policies is critical to sustain this control. The larger cost containment problems the nation faces are in the private insurance market.
– The Robert Wood Johnson Foundation