The Epidemiology and Demography of COVID-19

We are learning more everyday about the impact of COVID-19 on the US and other populations around the world, and gradually gaining a greater understanding of the trajectories of infection and mortality rates. As more information becomes available, the accuracy of projected trajectories and demographic differences in incidence and prevalence of infections and mortality rates will grow.

We are learning more everyday about the impact of COVID-19 on the US and other populations around the world, and gradually gaining a greater understanding of the trajectories of infection and mortality rates. As more information becomes available, the accuracy of projected trajectories and demographic differences in incidence and prevalence of infections and mortality rates will grow.

That will allow greater confidence in our knowledge of what future conditions are likely to prevail under different policy intervention scenarios, especially those regarding the economy. Our understanding of population dynamics allows us to better predict who is going to be affected most, and where resources should be directed now and in the future. The site will serve as a repository for the accumulation of epidemiology and demography information and its policy implications.

Reports

• Race, Ethnicity, and Age Trends in Persons Who Died from COVID-19 — United States, May–August 2020 (CDC)

Important Links

• Why The Pandemic Is 10 Times Worse Than You Think (npr)
• The case for optimism on Covid-19, in 2 charts (VOX)
• New Covid Cases Plunge 25% or More as Behavior Changes (KHN)
• Coronavirus cases fall in 41 states (Axios)
• A Covid-19 peak? Variants muddy forecasts for coming months (NBC News)
• New Study Finds Coronavirus Has Reduced Life Expectancy for Blacks and Latinos (NBC Los Angeles)
• Covid-19 deaths are the highest they’ve ever been — and the more infectious variants could make things much worse (STAT)
• More than 90,000 Americans could die of Covid-19 in next three weeks, CDC forecast shows (CNN)
• The US just suffered its worst day ever for Covid-19 deaths. But this summer could be ‘dramatically better’ (CNN)
• Now in Georgia, new ‘super strain’ poses major risk (Georgia Health News)
• UK coronavirus variant most likely to spread among this age group, study suggests (Fox News)
• COVID-19 model predicts 150,000 more US deaths within the next month (The Hill)
• The Mutated Virus Is a Ticking Time Bomb (The Atlantic)
• Biden criticizes Trump’s coronavirus effort, vows extensive federal response (The Washington Post)
• US hits grim new daily record with 3,656 coronavirus deaths (The Hill)
• People Thought Covid-19 Was Relatively Harmless for Younger Adults. They Were Wrong (The New York Times)
• COVID-19 deaths hit hardest in rural America (The Hill)
• Covid-19 now kills more than 1 American every minute. And the rate keeps accelerating as the death toll tops 300,000 (CNN)
• Young People Have Less Covid-19 Risk, but in College Towns, Deaths Rose Fast (The New York Times)
• US virus deaths hit record levels with the holidays ahead (AP News)
• The Pandemic’s Final Surge Will Be Brutal (The Atlantic)
• Vaccines are coming, but pandemic experts expect a ‘horrible’ winter. (The New York Times)
• Why fewer people are dying of COVID-19, even as cases surge (The Philadelphia Inquirer)
• Dr. Fauci Sees ‘Terribly Painful Months’ Ahead (The New York Times)
• The Final Pandemic Surge Is Crashing Over America (The Atlantic)
• As U.S. Reaches 250,000 Deaths From COVID-19, A Long Winter Is Coming (npr)
• COVID-19 deaths? The picture won’t be clear for 8 weeks, researchers say (The Palm Beach Post)
• Study finds Black and Asian people in the US, Britain have higher coronavirus risk (The Hill)
• Covid-19: Pandemic Shatters More Records in U.S., as States and Cities Tighten Restrictions (The New York Times)
• ‘It’s Traumatizing’: Coronavirus Deaths Are Climbing Once Again (The New York Times)
• Restaurants and gyms were spring ‘superspreader’ sites. Occupancy limits could control Covid, new study predicts (STAT)
• Coronavirus deaths are rising again in the US, as feared (AP News)
• This Overlooked Variable Is the Key to the Pandemic (The Atlantic)
• The Coronavirus Surge That Will Define the Next 4 Years (The Atlantic)
• After a college town’s coronavirus outbreak, deaths at nursing homes mount (The Washington Post)
• CDC Reports Nearly 300,000 ‘Excess Deaths’ in the U.S. Amid Pandemic (KQED)
• ‘At a breaking point’: New surge of Covid-19 cases has states, hospitals scrambling, yet again (STAT)
• What’s Coming This Winter? Here’s How Many More Could Die In The Pandemic (npr)
• Covid-19 cases climbing in almost every state as U.S. braces for possible ‘third peak’ (NBC)
• The Third Coronavirus Surge Has Arrived (The Atlantic)
• Fauci warns that Covid-19 infection rates are too high heading into winter (CNN)
• Inquiry begins into blanket use in England of Covid ‘do not resuscitate’ orders (The Guardian)
• America’s newest wave of Covid-19 cases, explained (Vox)
• ‘A Definite and Sustained Increase’: Europe Leads Record Single-Day Worldwide Covid-19 Infection Surge (Common Dreams)
• CDC ensemble forecast foresees death toll from Covid-19 climbing to 233,000 by end of month (CNN)
• Huge Study of Coronavirus Cases in India Offers Some Surprises to Scientists (The New York Times)
• The US excess mortality rate from COVID-19 is substantially worse than Europe’s (Vox EU)
• Covid-19 twice as likely in teens than in younger kids (NBC News)
• Positive COVID-19 test rates rising in some U.S. Midwest states (Reuters)
• More contagious coronavirus now virtually only strain in Houston (Houston Chronicle)
• Reopening colleges may have caused tens of thousands of coronavirus cases: study (The Hill)
• As virus pummels US, Europe sees its own spike (The Hill)
• As doctors worry about ‘a very apocalyptic fall,’ the CDC retracts info on how Covid-19 spreads (CNN)
• ‘Astonishingly risky’: COVID-19 cases at colleges are fueling the nation’s hottest outbreaks (USA Today)
• COVID-19 cases rise in U.S. Midwest and Northeast, deaths fall for third week (Reuters)
• What Young, Healthy People Have to Fear From COVID-19 (The Atlantic)
• 70 percent of new coronavirus cases are coming from red states (The Hill)
• ‘Rolling hotspots’ are the new normal: Sun Belt states see progress on coronavirus as rates drift up in the Midwest (CNN)
• What we’ve learned about Covid-19 seven months after the first US case (CNN)
• Teen and children hospitalizations, deaths from coronavirus increasing: report (The Hill)
• The Midwest Sees a Spike as Covid-19 Cases Decline Elsewhere (The New York Times)
• Getting COVID-19 and the flu at the same time: What are the risks? (ABC News)
• US faces long road on COVID-19 amid signs of improvement (The Hill)
• COVID-19 cases among children surge in Georgia (AJC)
• Why Does the Coronavirus Hit Men Harder? A New Clue (The New York Times)
• Why The Coronavirus Is So ‘Superspready’ (npr)
• Accuracy of U.S. coronavirus data thrown into question as decline in testing skews drop in new cases (CNBC)
• The Health 202: Coronavirus keeps spreading. But at least we’ve learned more about it. (The Washington Post)
• The Health 202: Why individual models of coronavirus deaths are often wrong (The Washington Post)
• Fauci warns of ‘really bad situation’ if daily coronavirus cases don’t drop to 10K by September (The Hill)
• Measuring excess mortality gives a clearer picture of the pandemic’s true burden (STAT)
• School closures in spring linked to drastic decrease in Covid-19 cases and deaths (STAT)
• Here’s what COVID-19 does to a child’s body (National Geographic)
• 2nd US virus surge hits plateau, but few experts celebrate (AP News)
• Diabetes highlights two Americas: One where COVID is easily beaten, the other where it’s often devastating (USA Today)
• What Scientists Know About How Children Spread COVID-19 (Portside)
• The Rise in Testing Is Not Driving the Rise in U.S. Virus Cases (The New York Times)
• Silent spread of virus keeps scientists grasping for clues (AP News)
• Pinning hopes on vaccine is not the right coronavirus strategy, expert says (CNN)
• Older Children Spread the Coronavirus Just as Much as Adults, Large Study Finds (The New York Times)
• Almost one-third of Florida children tested are positive for the coronavirus (The Hill)
• A Second Coronavirus Death Surge Is Coming (The Atlantic)
• The Health 202: Why determining the coronavirus death rate is so tricky (The Washington Post)
• Study of 17 Million Identifies Crucial Risk Factors for Coronavirus Deaths (The New York Times)
• Coronavirus Cases Are Peaking Again. Here’s How It’s Different This Time. (The New York Times)
• How COVID-19 in Jails and Prisons Threatens Nearby Communities (PEW)
• US health officials estimate 20M Americans have had virus (AP News)
• Is A Second Wave Of Coronavirus Coming? (KHN)
• Coronavirus Cases Rise Sharply in Prisons Even as They Plateau Nationwide (The New York Times)
• Rising Covid-19 cases and hospitalizations underscore the long road ahead (STAT)
• Coronavirus Cases Spike Across Sun Belt as Economy Lurches into Motion (The New York Times)
• COVID-19 patients with underlying health conditions are 12 times more likely to die: CDC (The Hill)
• Fears of second U.S. coronavirus wave rise on worrisome spike in cases, hospitalizations (Reuters)
• The coronavirus pandemic isn’t ending — it’s surging (The Washington Post)
• Fauci calls coronavirus his ‘worst nightmare’ as infectious disease expert (Politico)
• Shutdowns through early April prevented about 60 million US coronavirus infections, study says (CNN)
• When 511 Epidemiologists Expect to Fly, Hug and Do 18 Other Everyday Activities Again (The New York Times)
• Coronavirus Rips Into Regions Previously Spared (The New York Times)
• Coronavirus infection rate may shift toward younger ages; death risk higher in cancer patients (Reuters)
• Is America’s Pandemic Waning or Raging? Yes (The New York Times)
• The Top U.S. Coronavirus Hot Spots Are All Indian Lands (The New York Times)
• Rising ICU bed use ‘a big red flag’ (Politico)
• Bad state data hides coronavirus threat as Trump pushes reopening (Politico)
• The World Is Still Far From Herd Immunity for Coronavirus (The New York Times)
• Reopening too soon: Lessons from the deadly second wave of the 1918 flu pandemic (The Washington Post)
• CDC estimates that 35% of coronavirus patients don’t have symptoms (CNN)
• Let’s Remember That the Coronavirus Is Still a Mystery (The New York Times)
• Disease modelers are wary of reopening the country. Here’s how they arrive at their verdict (The Washington Post)
• COVID-19 much more fatal for men, especially taking age into account (Brookings)
• Virus spikes could emerge weeks after US economic reopenings (AP News)
• How To Make Sense of All The COVID-19 Projections? A New Model Combines Them (NPR)
• Making sense of COVID-19 fatality rates (StarTribune)
• Some are Winning – Some are Not (End Coronavirus)
• Three potential futures for Covid-19: recurring small outbreaks, a monster wave, or a persistent crisis (STAT)
• A snapshot of coronavirus in the U.S.: A high plateau of new cases portends more spread (STAT)
• Former CDC Official Warns Of 2nd COVID-19 Wave: Most Americans Are Still Susceptible (wbur)
• Models under scrutiny as coronavirus gets more politicized (The Hill)
• Models shift to predict dramatically more U.S. deaths as states relax social distancing (Politico)
• Three potential futures for Covid-19: recurring small outbreaks, a monster wave, or a persistent crisis (STAT)
• Why the Coronavirus Is So Confusing (The Atlantic)
• Coronavirus Kills People an Average of a Decade Before Their Time, Studies Find (The Wall Street Journal)
• Three potential futures for Covid-19: recurring small outbreaks, a monster wave, or a persistent crisis (STAT)
• Five Ways to Follow the Coronavirus Outbreak for Any Metro Area in the U.S. (The New York Times)
• Coronavirus tracked: the latest figures as countries fight to contain the pandemic (Financial Times)
• U.S. Coronavirus Death Toll Is Far Higher Than Reported, C.D.C. Data Suggests (The New York Times)
• ‘It doesn’t stay where you started’: Reopening some states heightens the risk of coronavirus surges in others (STAT)
• How accurate is the US coronavirus death count? Some experts say it’s off by ‘tens of thousands’ (ABC News)
• Study: Many asymptomatic COVID-19 cases undetected (CIDRAP)
• Case fatality rates rise as coronavirus runs deadly course (The Hill)
• N.Y.C. Deaths Reach 6 Times the Normal Level, Far More Than Coronavirus Count Suggests (The New York Times)
• How overly optimistic modeling distorted Trump team’s coronavirus response (Politico)
• Nearly half lived with unhealthy pollution levels in 2016-2018: analysis (The Hill)
• It’s hard to count coronavirus deaths accurately. But here’s why experts say it’s important (New Orleans Advocate)
• Covid-19 Does Not Discriminate by Body Weight (Wired)
• The Huge Cost of Waiting to Contain the Pandemic (The New York Times)
• ‘It’s Not Over Until It’s Over’: 5 Things To Know About Hitting The COVID-19 Peak (KHN)
• A New Statistic Reveals Why America’s COVID-19 Numbers Are Flat (The Atlantic)
• Who lives in the places where coronavirus is hitting the hardest? (Brookings)
• Sewage analysis suggests a New England metro area with fewer than 500 COVID-19 cases may have exponentially more (ABC News)
• As some leaders weigh pursuit of ‘herd immunity’ from coronavirus, experts warn risks are too high (ABC News)
• Don’t lump seniors together on coronavirus. Older people aren’t all the same (USA Today)